286 · Overcrowded Trades: What Everyone Else is Not Seeing w/ Jason Shapiro

Ian Cox Podcast Leave a Comment

There’s Contrarian Trading and then there’s Consistent Contrarian Trading. Can you really make money by consistently going against the crowd? Does it take a certain type of personality to be able to trade this way? Jason Shapiro was featured in “Unknown Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager and he returns to Chat With Traders for an update after two years since we last spoke with him. 

We delve deeper into his countertrend trading philosophy, learning about how he identifies overcrowded trades, and how market positioning and sentiment, rather than price, guide his trades, and focusing on the underlying mechanics that drive market moves.

About Jason Shapiro:

Jason has over 30 years of trading experience, navigating various markets including the 90s rallies, the 2000s tech bubble, the 2008 crash, and recent volatility in the last few years. His contrarian approach has made him a successful hedge fund manager, and he was featured in one of Jack Schwager’s recent Market Wizards books. He has managed money ranging from a few million to several hundred million dollars, gaining extensive knowledge of futures markets. Jason currently runs a one-man hedge fund using the CMR process.

Trading Disclaimer

Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice.

Topics & Timestamps:

Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads.

  • 0:00 Introduction and background
  • 4:40 Yen carry trade
  • 12:05 Markets which are crowded now
  • 16:35 Ideal setup to go long or short
  • 22:50 Does the importance of news releases change over time?
  • 30:12 Barrons expert roundtable and their performance
  • 35:00 Signs of euphoria
  • 37:25 “This is the most hated bull market I have seen”
  • 43:50 Market betting on rate cuts—not a good bet?
  • 47:20 When the game is up
  • 52:15 “The less I know about the markets, the better I am”
  • 53:05 How to reach Jason

Jason Shapiro

Links & Resources