289 · Beyond Being Right – A Shift to Framework Thinking w/ Alfonso Peccatiello (MacroAlf)

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Alfonso Peccatiello’s (also known as MacroAlf on X) approach to the financial markets is rooted in macroeconomic insights, identifying market imbalances, and disciplined risk management. Having managed a $20 billion fixed-income portfolio, Alf has seen firsthand how understanding market dynamics and timing can unlock significant value. His strategies focus on spotting crowded trades, leveraging market dislocations, and carefully sizing positions to maximize returns while minimizing risk.

About Alfonso Peccatiello:

Alfonso is the founder and CEO of The Macro Compass, a firm dedicated to democratizing access to professional macro analysis, tools, and portfolio strategies. Leveraging his extensive experience managing large institutional investment portfolios, The Macro Compass provides unparalleled financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategies. Prior to launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso served as the head of investments for ING Germany, overseeing a $20 billion portfolio. He also launched a discretionary global macro hedge fund, Palinuro Capital, in 2024.

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Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice.

Topics & Timestamps:

Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads.

  • 0:00 Introduction and background
  • 06:40 First job as an analyst
  • 13:40 Using volatility indicators to create strategies
  • 18:42 Crowded trades—Japanese carry trade
  • 22:42 The crystal ball challenge
  • 29:50 When to adjust correlations
  • 39:15 Why correlations go to 1 in a selloff
  • 45:58 What can the individual investor do that is not too complex
  • 49:33 Is global liquidity responsible for market rises and falls?
  • 52:38 What does Debt/GDP increase?—Where did the missing money go?

Alfonso Peccatiello

Links & Resources