276 · Contextualization Within a Framework of Conditional Probabilities w/ Will Gogolak

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As a risk officer with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Will Gogolak was setting margin requirements and saw a wide variety of traders’ accounts and what separated the winning traders from the losing ones, before leaving to pursue his own trading and obtaining a PHD in finance and share his knowledge of quantitative analysis and market experience with students at Carnegie Mellon University. Combining his market experience with knowledge of statistics helps William create his custom buy the dip strategy with futures and leveraged ETFs, and focusing on probabilities and determining market direction for informed trading decisions.


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Topics & Timestamps:

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  • 0:00 Introduction
  • 5:15 Background and experience at the CME
  • 8:28 Raising margin requirements
  • 13:28 Why did oil go below zero in 2020
  • 15:40 Observing traders accounts
  • 23:00 Ways to pick trades
  • 28:18 Quant analysis shown in the charts?
  • 32:15 Tools to get into quant analysis
  • 34:45 Buy the dip methodology
  • 38:30 How often Will gets buy signals
  • 42:00 Contextualization within the framework of conditional probabilities
  • 44:45 COT reports as an indicator of extremes
  • 51:00 Suggestions to traders
  • 52:10 What Will is working on now

Will Gogolak

Links & Resources

  • Email: [email protected]
  • CME’s Educational and Insights Page: https://www.cmegroup.com/education.html